Why are the EU and Canada getting so friendly all of a sudden?
This week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made an unprecedented offer to Canadian prime minister Mark Carney, who was the guest of honour at her State of the European Union speech in Strasbourg. She told Carney that she wanted to make Canada “the first associate member of the EU.”
Carney was clearly delighted by the surprise announcement, even as some EU experts were left scratching their heads. Under its current rules, there is no such thing as “associate membership” of the EU, but this does not prevent the two sides from inventing a new kind of relationship that goes by that name.
From the point of view of the EU treaties, there are currently only member states and non-member states (ie “third countries). Indeed, the whole experience of Brexit served to emphasize that there is a sharp distinction between members and non-members and, that by leaving the EU, the UK could no longer enjoy the rights of membership.
Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union says that “any European State” that respects the values of the EU may apply to join. It is generally thought that Canada, being geographically outside Europe, is ineligible to join the EU, although even that is a matter of some debate.
On the other hand, the EU could make use of a different provision of the treaties (Art 217) to negotiate an Association Agreement with Canada. The EU has Association Agreements with several countries, such as Ukraine. It is an open question whether being an “associate member” would give Canada special privileges, such as the right to participate in EU decision-making bodies. It also remains to be seen whether the prospect of associate membership might also be held out to other close EU allies, such as Norway or the post-Brexit UK.
What would be the substantive areas of cooperation on which this new Canada-EU relationship would be based? Von der Leyen promised that they would move from CETA (the current Canada-EU free trade agreement) to “an Alliance for the Future to create a common prosperity and economic security space.” More specifically, she proposed closer cooperation in manufacturing, tech, defence industries, the Arctic, energy and critical minerals, as well as “AI, quantum, cyber and economic security.”
Carney will get a chance to respond to this offer today (Thursday), when he gives his own highly anticipated speech to the European Parliament. It is likely that he will reprise the message of the famous Davos speech he gave in January, when he warned that the rules-based international order has ended, and that the middle powers of the world must band together to challenge the dominance of the great powers.
This message has extra potency now, because Carney recently broke off US trade talks and retaliated against Donald Trump’s tariffs – the first close US ally to do so. Many European lawmakers want the EU to also take a stand against Trump’s bullying, and see Canada and the EU as natural allies in this fight. It is this new geopolitical reality that provides the context for this extraordinary rapprochement.
Carney’s trip to Strasbourg is only part of the unfolding diplomatic choreography between Canada and Europe. Carney also visited Liverpool to meet British prime minister Andy Burnham and attended an Everton match with him. After that he will fly to meet Emmanuel Macron in Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, a tiny French territory off the coast of Newfoundland. It’s the first time a sitting Canadian premier will have set foot there, which will be a symbolic recognition of the close proximity of Canada and Europe.
The events of this week will be followed by an EU-Canada summit in Montreal at the end of October. In addition, the Canadian trade minister has been invited to Dublin to attend an informal meeting of EU trade ministers as part of Ireland’s Council presidency. Moreover, the European Parliament announced that it will open an office in Ottawa. As if all this wasn’t enough, Canada will for the first time compete in the Eurovision Song Contest in 2027.
This is a moment to welcome a truly audacious proposal that could forge a deep and unprecedented relationship between the EU and Canada
Amid these dizzying events, we should inject a note of caution. While Von der Leyen’s aspirations should be applauded, her ambitious projects can be tempered by the foot-dragging of the member states and the institutional machinery of the EU, which can grind very slowly. It is worth remembering that Canada, which is today feted as a cherished partner, already has a trade agreement with the EU, known as CETA.
This was signed in 2016 and has been provisionally applied since 2017, but has not yet fully entered into force because it is still awaiting ratification from 10 EU member states, including Ireland. Any future deal for associate membership could be delayed by bureaucratic inertia or thwarted by the opposition of entrenched interests. This said, this is a moment to welcome a truly audacious proposal that could forge a deep and unprecedented relationship between the EU and Canada, “the most European of non-European countries.”
Dr Ian Cooper is a Senior Research Fellow at the Dublin European Law Institute and DCU Brexit Institute at Dublin City University. This piece was first published on RTE Brainstorm.